For example: In 2019 I released a book: What’s Next 2020 with descriptions of the way things were trending for larger churches.
Unfortunately, I missed the biggest disruption in 100 years, a global pandemic.
Today’s post is just over 1000 words ~ 5 minutes to read.
Since starting Church Leader Insider late last summer I have also made a few pronouncements and shared some stats as well. This time, my record is a little better.
“It’s always hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” A Yogi Berraism.
But let’s update a few of those so your thinking is clear and mine can be clarified.
Focus on Fall 2021 (see the prior article here)
This encouragement was for church leaders trying to plan on too short a time horizon month-to-month right now and where to put energy, time, and focus.
Basic counsel was if you have a dozen eggs for 2021, put 4 in the first 8 months, and 8 in the last 4 months. In other words, Fall 2021 will be the big launch of the Next Normal period.
Expect Spring and Summer to still be irregular operations. It’s not that you can’t do some marvelous ministry in the first 8 months of this year.
This graphic helps capture some of the optimism that is rising every week.
As I write this issue, the third vaccine maker has released over a million new doses into the system and we now have around vaccine and natural protection heading us towards safer days. A fourth vaccine should be approved as well in the next 40 days. Those are for the US. China has two in use their companies developed and Russia and India have one as well. Those are separate from US vaccines. Globally, while the rollout is slow, it is steady and growing.
May now expect July to reach some state of immunity across the US due to vaccination and natural antibodies.
But there is a difference between physiology and psychology. Each week another school system is returning to in-person attendance and attendance limits even in restrictive states are being lifted. Fall colleges and universities are planning for in-person attendance, as are other mass gathering events. Hotel bookings and travel companies are reporting strong demand as well for the fall.
Implication: The Fall Focus is the push that while there will still be some issues in Fall 2021, but most of the systems will be up and going. Invest your time, energy, and attention and making for a great fall push in your ministry plan.
The K Shape Economy and impact ( see these two issues – Issue 1 and the follow-up here.)
Review: The K Shape means that households are experiencing the pandemic season in three different ways, one caught by the economists, and the other observed by me.
There is an upper line of the K in which some report that the pandemic has increased their wealth, income, and economic well-being. This has not just been white-collar, highly educated workers though. It includes a number of services, construction, home improvement, and other businesses that have experienced new business opportunities in the season.
There is a lower line of the K in which around 20% of our citizens have experienced negative experiences related to their finances and economic well-being. Some of that has been mitigated by expansions in the safety net both provided directly to individuals and to small businesses and even churches through governmental support. The restaurant, retail, hospitality, and travel industries have been hard hit.
My insight for church leaders is that there has been a middle line as well in the K. Those in the church that are on fixed incomes. Their economic well-being has risen slightly during the season.
All groups have increased savings and reduced expenditures. At the end of 2020, it was reported that were more dollars in checking and saving accounts than ever before in the U.S. In January 2021 the savings rate of Americans was over 20.5%, around 4 times higher than normal. Giving in the US to charitable causes also increased last year.
Implications: Now is the time to plan that fall generosity initiative and start now with your key impact givers. The money is there in most places.
Make provision to continue to minister to the least of these through this season.
Do not be afraid to ask the upper and middle lines to give generously. Even those that are in the lower line desire to help others as well. Make a way.
After the ad, more prediction checking
What about the Nones?
The fastest-growing segment related to faith in America are those that claim to have no affiliation to a religious group. What do we do with that?
Dr. Ryan Burge has been writing about this area for the past decade and has just released: The Nones: Where they came from, Who they are, and Where they are going.
Not only that, but he is going to join a special edition of the Senior Pastor weekly call on March 24th at 4 p.m. ET to share his findings and discuss them with large church senior pastors.
If you are not a weekly participant but are a senior pastor, you can join us that day. Just send a request to Linda.Stanley@generis.com and she will get you the log-in details. It is live, with no recording so you have to be present.
In addition, my colleagues Greg Ligon and Jon Wright are starting a call for Executive Pastors – those that serve as the “number 2” in a large church setting. If that is you and you want to be a part of a weekly, peer-driven, forum call. Let Greg know by emailing him at Greg.Ligon@generis.com and he can get you added to the list. That call will be Wednesdays at 3 p.m. ET every week.
Story continues…
What about the numbers of people moving? (see the prior issue here and here)
People movement always creates opportunities for churches (and businesses).
As people move to new residences, they have to seek new connections for their needs. As mentioned in prior articles, the migration rate within the US had fallen to new lows pre-pandemic, the lowest in 73 years. Now it has resumed more of a historic pattern as to the number of people moving either to a new house within a county or for job purposes.
With two New York City-based clients and a New Jersey client, this has been viewed as a negative impact on their mission potential. (don’t worry, it will bounce back…..eventually) But with Texas and other southern state clients, they continue to see people move to their area.
This report from United Van Lines is a great illustration of the picture in 2020 of the dramatic departure from previous times. Atlas Van Lines reports a similar image.
Also, see this story from NPR this past weekend. It’s called “Why America is moving.”
In discussions with clients and looking at data on housing prices in areas of churches I serve one sees a distinct pattern. Rising prices tend to indicate high demand and in-migration. Falling prices mean out-migration.
And we mentioned in that initial article about remote work and how it helps drive some of these patterns. According to a Stanford study, we saw 8 times growth in remote work in 2020. Some will go back to limited in-office schedules, but some expect it to stick. A good summary is here.
Implications: There is little to nothing that a church can do to change these patterns. The key here to surf them. Continue to reach out to new move-ins and create new emotional spaces for those that are new and not settled. The settling phase for many Americans can be several years, so continue to nurture new move-ins longer than you think. The exception could be in some military base towns where both families and housing turn over frequently. Those families tend to get settled quicker.
In those places experience out-migration sometimes an emphasis on keeping families in the area by working with business owners can retain some key leaders who are subject to transfer. Keep an eye out for those that have high school-aged teenagers and talk to those parents about their transfer or job loss risk. If they deem it appropriate, help network them to those that can help them find new opportunities in your area instead of them feeling like they have to relocate.
With some age groups, it is very natural to either retire or develop part-time seasonal residences in other parts of the country. This is where some of the microsite thinking is rising as well in using these believers to plant small sites that are resourced in new ways. My colleague Greg Ligon can help you with that thinking. And check out their resource – Multisite Reimagined as well.
Great Things God Has Done Podcast – The podcast where Senior Pastors are interviewed about their life and leadership. New Season starting in two weeks but go back and listen to these you may have missed:
Leonce Crump - https://greatthingsgodhasdone.substack.com/p/lonce-b-crump-jr
Ben Cachairas - https://greatthingsgodhasdone.substack.com/p/ben-cachiaras
David McQueen - https://greatthingsgodhasdone.substack.com/p/david-mcqueen
Jamie Loya - https://greatthingsgodhasdone.substack.com/p/jamie-loya
Sung Kim - https://greatthingsgodhasdone.substack.com/p/sung-kim
Or give it a try and like it on your favorite podcast listening app.