This is the stats issue of Church Leader Insider where we focus on a factoid and then its implications for church leaders.
America is moving again!
One of the hidden in plain sight factors of American church/religious history is the impact of household relocations.
In the great awakening this was characterized by households moving across the country to settle new lands. Another one happened when floods of people moved to cities during industrialization.
This was documented well by Donald McGavran in Asia in what he called “people movements.”
Both population shifts in this country created new opportunities for new churches and ministries that may not have strictly targeted these new populations moving into an area, but became the de facto “homes” for the newer residents.
Many of the boomer churches that emerged 30 and 40 years ago were located in places where younger generations were moving, buying first homes and establishing families.
This continued to Gen X as well. The locations may have changed slightly, but these were seen as “fields white unto harvest.” The boom churches were normally found in housing boom communities or places where one demographic group was leaving and another one coming in.
This also holds true not just for newer areas around larger cities, but changes in the populations within cities as one group moves in and another moves out. [Give a listen to Stacy Spencer episode where he describes the changes in his community that helped in planting New Directions in Memphis as an example.]
The short way to explain it is: Wherever there are significant changes in people moving in, you have great opportunities to reach new people. Where you have highly stable population, it is more challenging.
But as recently as last year, the US hit a 72 year low in the percentage of households that moved, dropping below 10% nationwide.
[William Frey, one of the foremost demographers of the age, has the story here at Brookings.]
When I share this with pastors they get alarmed because they can’t change the moving rate in their own communities much.
What a difference a virus makes
While we don’t have official census bureau figures yet, and certainly not for 2020 moves, we do have some incoming statistics that are showing a tremendous increase in the number of households moving.
While a grave housing recession was feared, instead we have new house shortages and in large swaths of the country, bidding wars for houses.
For many younger adults, aged 24-29, 39% say they are moving home or have moved home to their parents during Covid season. In the younger generation below that, many moved home from college or first apartments.
Pew reports that 22% of US adults either have moved or know a good friend that has moved during the Covid crisis season.
During the Covid season with the dramatic rise of remote work, some are labeling distant suburbs and exurbs as zoom towns, as those that can and are allowed to do remote work take full advantage of the season. Many miss the office or workplace to some degree. Most say they will not go back to the way they used to live and work.
From The Washington Post just last week:
“During the second quarter of 2020, Realtor.com’s quarterly Cross Market Demand Report found that 51 percent of property searches on the site from city residents in the nation’s 100 largest metro areas were for homes in the suburbs of those metro areas, a record high since the website began tracking that data in 2017. In addition, Redfin real estate brokerage reported that a record number (27.4 percent) of Redfin.com users were looking to move to a different metro area during the second quarter of 2020.”
Implications after the ad
Succession is different from search
In the next decade hundreds of larger churches must find ways to thrive through the succession process of their long-term, highly respected Senior Pastor.
Many will bungle this, always unintentionally, because they neglect key signposts, markers, potholes, process points and crucial pathways.
This is much more than finding the next lead pastor.
My Smart Succession Process guides the pastor, their spouse, board, staff and congregation to manage the spiritual, emotional and structural process of a solid, robust succession plan.
This experience builds long-term stability and foundation that enables future growth of congregants, the congregation and helps the God’s light to shine brightly through the church into the community.
I have two free resources that can help you and your church as you think through these issues. To get both, just email me at Dave.Travis@Generis.com
Mobility Trends and Implications for Church Leaders
Broadly speaking - the shorthand for national level trends:
Colder to warmer climates - this is a long tail trend. There are a few exceptions but in general, if you live in a colder climate, you move south.
High tax to low tax - as younger generations figure out tax savings from living in high tax urbanized areas, they decide that now is the time to relocate to a lower tax suburb or state. This also describes much of the retirement age market.
Urban to “pastoral” - there was a much ballyhooed notion that young families were migrating in droves to inner cities to remake communities. Some of that was happening. But when polled and behaviors were actually examined, the move to extant suburbs was increasing. This also now hits those older adults that are moving further out from first and second ring suburbs. They weren’t going full on “Green Acres*” style, but they were moving outside to larger plots of ground.
From the same Washington Post article:
The pandemic has also led many people to reevaluate their lifestyle, with some recognizing that they want to live closer to their family. Other city dwellers want to have more living space and expand their access to outdoor space, two features that are harder to come by and more expensive within city limits.
Implications:
Many of those kids raised in your church that moved away may now be back in your communities. How can you work with their parents to re engage them? How can those young adults help you envision a ministry with them to connect others?
If you are multisite, where are some of your people going? Most families move along the major direction from the center city to further out. Example: If you are the east side of the city now, they are moving further east. What could be the opportunity to plant a starter site or small site with these people as leaders and missionaries in their new community?
If you are a church in one of the zoom towns, how are you discovering, inviting and engaging the new residents moving to your place. Many of these new residents don’t know the ways and customs of your town. Perhaps even a series of discovery webinars about the town, county or area could be a good introduction.
You will think of more, but this is a unique opportunity for the next year that should not be missed.
If you want help to think through it, just send up a smoke signal and schedule a free call. Reach out to Linda.Stanley@generis.com and she can get you on the schedule.
Something you MUST READ:
My old friend, mentor and boss Fred Smith, had this on his blog last week. Like most of Fred’s writings, it perfectly captures the moment.
On the Great Things GOD has Done podcast this week
This week’s podcast interview is with my friend Pastor John Jenkins of First Baptist Church of Glenarden, Maryland. Find his interview here.
And check out all the podcast interviews with Senior Pastors across America - https://greatthingsgodhasdone.substack.com/
And all the past interviews with Dr. Stacy Spencer, John Braland, Larry Osborne and more.
*Note: Because most of you are too young to remember, Green Acres was a tv sitcom that starred Eb and a pig named Arnold. And one of the Gabors, but I can never recall which one. If you are old, who was your favorite character?
Hit reply and send it to me.