Main article – 1000 words. 3 minutes read time.
Most of you serve in cities and suburban contexts. In a future issue, I will attempt to describe how suburbs are changing, but today, let’s examine the growth of the more rural areas and what that could mean for your church.
Most have observed or read about some of the exodus away from central city contexts during the pandemic. This has been acute in “Superstar Cities” where living costs are very high, as is density.
There has been a narrative in our culture about the younger adults “returning to the city.” That is one of the streams within a larger view around larger cities. Some churches have strategically followed some of their constituents into the city by planting new sites and helping church plants to connect with their own people and reach new people. They are to be commended.
Likewise, we have seen through some gentrification effects, inner ring suburbs becoming hosts to new residents that desire to live close to work, and to build community in these contexts. As someone once said to me, “when you see the Whole Foods, there goes the neighborhood.”
The Gallup organization did a January survey asking people where they would like to live. You can see the summary here.
It points to a dramatic increase in those who report their desire to live in a rural, town or more remote setting. The number has increased 9% since 2018. In terms of population shifts, this is dramatic.
Source: Gallup
Much of this has been driven by adults moving from city to country during the pandemic and figuring out they can live just fine in that region. The preponderance of those want to live in a “town” as opposed to just a rural area.
“On the whole, slim majorities of Americans in cities and suburbs aspire to live elsewhere, whereas three in four town/rural residents are content where they are.
Specifically, just under half of those who live in a city (47%) would prefer city living, while 30% would opt for a town or rural area and 22% a suburb. Similarly, 48% of current suburban residents favor suburban living, while 30% would rather be in a town/rural area and 22% a city.”
This quote is intriguing as it points to an unsettledness of emotions as to where people actually desire to live in the future.
As you will read if you follow the link, 75% of those that live in a town/rural setting want to live there. Much higher than city or suburban dwellers.
What’s driving this, besides the pandemic?
Money goes farther – more house/land for the dollar. As younger couples mature, have children, they tend to want more space. Often moving away from the city gets them closer to their personal ideals. House prices in these areas have risen but they are still very reasonable compared to urban and first ring suburbs.
Work from home – Admittedly not everyone can work from home, but the pandemic has proven that more can than was expected. This is especially true in knowledge workers who left the office and are now stating that they don’t see a return to that way of life for themselves in the future. Almost 71% of workers (Pew) say they can do almost all their work from home. It’s less for lower income americans of course, but this is a dramatic shift.
At home entertainment – The dramatic rise of time shifting and OTT (Over the Top) streaming services are now capturing more of the entertainment needs of families. From Netflix to ESPN and Amazon Prime, a good internet connection delivers for households what used to be occupied by urban/suburban cable or movie and theater going.
Less eating out – While eat at home prices have dropped over the last two decades, that has been accompanied by a rise in eating out and pick-up places for providing food. But the pandemic saw a dramatic reduction in that activity as couples and families stayed home and prepared their own meals. Rural and town settings are seeing some rise in these restaurant establishments, including those chefs leaving the city themselves for a different pace of life.
Closer to “nature”- Has been a recurring theme throughout American history, but the pandemic indoor restrictions sent more people out of doors be that in hiking, golf, or other recreation.
The Amazon delivery system – even in more remote areas, most Amazon packages are delivered within a few days. A family may not be able to order the “Fresh” and one hour systems, but everything else can get delivered making the rural life easier to find needed goods.
Implications after the ad:
Since my consulting load is almost at wait list status again for my core coaching in Pastor Smart Succession, Storycrafting for Strategy, and Building Better Boards, let me give you a great offer from my colleagues Greg Ligon and Geoff Surratt. Both of these are long-term collaborators of mine.
They are conducting a "flash survey" to get some data and insights into what churches are thinking about the future of multisite in their church. The survey (first wave) will be live for only 10 days.
They will be sharing the early results as a part of a webinar on the Future of Multisite where we will also be sharing highlights from our new e-book, Multisite Reimagined. In addition, they have guests from 12Stone and McLean Bible Church will be doing a deep dive on what we/they are learning about microsites.
Here’s the survey link: 3 minute survey http://bit.ly/multisite-reimagined-survey
And then Check out the Future of Multisite with @geoffsurratt and @gregligon, Monday February 22, 12 CST. Register at https://resi.io/future-of-multisite/
Implications
So what? What does this people transition and desire mean for your church and your ministry?
I see several possibilities:
Small city “mega” – some of you will take advantage of this season to do one last good run of ministry by moving to a small city/town area. For some that will be a place near their birth where they have pre-existing relationships and family ties. Others will follow some of their people to a town or area that attracts retirees.
Often “city people” don’t jive with “country churches” and those willing to pioneer, change and adapt a church could see great ministry in the final third of their career.
Multisite mega – I am familiar with several “rural” multisite churches. Some of these are suburban with a more rural/town plant, often led by bivocational leaders in rented space. These are aimed at those moving into the communities. Often they can be the largest fellowship in a few years.
Alternatively, I have worked with churches that are more relational/innovative in rural contexts that are planting sites across their region in prominent towns along the way.
Targeted plant – similar to the first one but in this case, it is intentionally sending out a planter and team to penetrate the new community focusing primarily on the transplants to the area. One friend planted in a rural resort area with “half backs.” That is a phrase for northerners that move to Florida, find it too hot, and then move to the mountains in the south. Few people in the church are “native” but instead are all transplanted from somewhere else but find community in the new church environment.
For those churches with Launch Planter Residencies (see last newsletter here) this is a viable place to send those planters.
As mentioned in a prior newsletter, the migration rate of Americans, (those that move from one place to another,) dropped over the last 20 years. This was a key driver of church growth for many congregations.
I spoke with a church team recently located in a state next to California. When I asked about the population shifts in their area they commented: “House prices have soared, they can’t build fast enough. People are moving here from the big cities.”
That means its time to get to work! What are you thinking the implications are?
Great Things God Has Done Podcast
The interview series with large church senior pastors describing their own life journeys continues…
New Episode: Pastor Sung Kim
In this episode, Dave speaks with Sung Kim the lead pastor at Grace Church in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Sung talks about growing up in Buffalo as a child of South Korean immigrants and the pressures he felt.
And more.
Take a listen, and thanks for reading.