Focus on FALL 2021
Why the focus needs to shift - plus What is happening in Large Churches RIGHT NOW?
Note: Special Bonus at the end of this issue, go all the way down
Build for Fall 2021
The big challenge for church leaders has been expectations.
Note: Clients and Happy Hour participants got early versions of this article and have helped refine. Note the added commentary at the end. It’s longer, but worth it. Especially for golfers and your board.
· When the pandemic season began in March the expectation was “maybe a few weeks but we will still get Easter in.”
· Then it was “In June we will be through the worst of it and people will start to come back.”
· Then in some states: “Once school starts up, we will be ok.”
In some states and regions, some of these assumptions have played out partially. Some have 50-60% of precovid attendance “back in the building.” Those percentages are for those with operating student ministries and in states with few restrictions and those that started early. If you are in a state that has restrictions, expect 30% or less. PLUS – If you are a network of smaller sites, you will be better off for in person attendance.
But we have learned some things. We can develop meaningful digital experiences to deepen discipleship. This is the key thrust for now. (And if you want to talk about a Durable Digital Campus - let’s talk.)
The challenge across the country is with leaders who keep holding out hope, often with a subtle reminder that “in a few weeks we will be through this.” These are hoping that in person, full on gatherings will be back sooner rather than later.
Or - “after the election, things will calm down.” Maybe even: “When the new year comes, we will be back at normal operations.”
My advisement is this:
· View this season as a classic transition. It had an ending, the neutral zone, and in the future, a new beginning.
· The ending came suddenly. We are now in the neutral zone. The neutral zone is a great time of improvisation, experimentation and innovation IF YOU WILL LET IT BE.
· Use the season between now and next August or September as preparation time for the new beginning. Decide how much you will invest in digital expressions and whether to pursue that for a 36-month season.
· Decide to scale back your “in person” programs to fit the attendance levels as they come back. This will mean re-engaging and re-deploying some players – volunteer and staff. But you aren’t going to get them all right now.
· Use the time between Christmas and Fall 2021 to rethink, reset and relaunch the program of ministry that you want to attempt starting in the fall.
· It’s not going to be a rush back, fill all the seats situation even next fall. But focusing your energies, volunteers, programs towards new appropriate ministries.
To give your team, staff, and people both the hope and the focus of energy, plan for fall 2021 to be the big kickoff. That marks the “New Beginning.”
That will mean rethinking the entire staff and program around that timeline.
Why I say this:
· As I read the think tank reports, we will have vaccines rolling out in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2021. The distribution plans being focus first on health care and vulnerable populations, as they should. There will be several different types of vaccines and some will be two rounds, not just one shot.
· The treatment protocols for virus infection is already multiple times more effective than February. (This includes diagnosis, testing, care, protection equipment, wider mask adoption, hospital capacity and newer treatment protocols)
· As vaccination programs begin, some confidence will be raised in general public awareness.
· With the election over, we hope the politicization of the virus will be reduced. (and remember, in some states – the election doesn’t end until January with run offs) Compliance measures will be more adopted post-election.
· Several major school systems that are currently offering hybrid and virtual schools are planning to be “back in session” live in Fall 2021, and will probably not offer a hybrid option for now. Ditto colleges.
· Some summer camps – are cautiously preparing for some sessions in 2021 summer. They may not be fully back at capacities, but if vaccinations are rolling, there will be some protocols to get kids into camp.
· Pent up savings in households due to some having higher income, decreased energy and living expenses and travel restrictions have some with flush bank accounts. Note: If all that money stays in accounts we could have some economic slowing since our economy is very dependent on consumer spending. Some of that cash is being spent now on home renovations, new real estate and other big-ticket items. Much is being invested in the markets. As home equity rises, some are feeling flush. Rents are fairly stable or even falling by contrast.
· This is not to demean the 20% of the households that are suffering a reversal of fortunes at this time. Employment numbers are creeping up and job listings for new workers actually remains high. The demand for workers exists for some types of employment as the economy shifts.
Implications for leaders after the break
Special Happy Hour Call November 11
What’s the reality in larger churches RIGHT NOW?
Most large church pastors have no idea how they got there. They have competence and smarts, and a bit of moxie.
They think they had a “formula” for their church, but have a hard time explaining how it would apply to other churches.
Worse, they can’t really explain to their board, their denomination or fellow pastors why their church is so different. Compounding that, when a reporter calls, they have points of view, but little data.
Thank goodness for my friends Dr. Warren Bird and Dr. Scott Thumma. They have research that looks at US megachurches they have now done for 20 years.
On Wednesday November 11 we are going to do a special edition of our Happy Hour Pastor Forum Call at 4 p.m. EST. to hear the results of their 2020 study and ask questions of them.
A few notes on getting an invitation to this exclusive call:
1. It is for Senior Pastors Only and will not be recorded. It’s a safe space to ask all sorts of questions.
2. You have to get an invitation to get a link. To request an invite – email Linda.Stanley@generis.org.
3. For those invited, we will send you some study results to look over before the call. If you know you have a question, go ahead and send it in and we will start a list.
While Warren and Scott are sort of eggheads, they also constantly think: “How can pastors use this information?”
Are you in? If so, send an email with the word “INVITE” to Linda.Stanley@Generis.com
P.S.
If you haven’t checked out the new Church Leader Insider Newsletter, do so here.
Or the interview podcast with large church senior pastors – Great Things God Has Done – here. This week is Matt Williams of Grace Church, Greenville, SC.
Main story continues…..
Implications:
· Get Advent and Christmas behind us while planning for reduced “live programs” in January to August as to “normal times.” Does this mean you should not gather in person? Not at all. Start back if you are allowed, but don’t expect full engagement. Plan for reduced programs for through July 2021 as everyone begins to emerge back into some other routines. Staff accordingly.
· Decide what your own church’s digital discipleship expressions could be for the future 36 months. What fits best in that format that can serve the mission ends? Start building that out a step at a time. [If you want to talk about Durable Digital Campus, let me know.]
· There needs to be a strong component and evidence of helping those that are hurting in your community. What does that look like for you?
· We will still have irregular lent and Easter in Spring 2021. Plan accordingly. Make full week engagement more important than throwing everything at the weekend.
· Use the winter and the spring to plan fall big pushes. Let’s talk about new visions, new opportunities MORE than back to normal. Cast vision for what you think you want to see in the new era of church, community and the world.
· This could include as well adding Resident and Intern Programs to prepare people for future service and the job market. [ We have a new Leader Advance Framework to help churches with that.]
· Fall 2021 will be a great time to have a Generosity initiative if you have not done one in 2020. Start that planning NOW. Employment will be gaining ground and the amount of cash held by individuals is very high right now. That means though you need to plan for that in the winter/spring by getting the team ready.
· Vision always wins for the church – as long as it is scaled and appropriate to the leadership capacity to pull it off.
Added Commentary:
This recent real life experience illuminated the above issues for a board. Of course there were a lot of golfers in that group. :)
In a recent call with a pastor and their governing board on the above issues we found a helpful analogy.
The challenge in particular was the pastor was exhausting the team of staff and elders with trying so many things to get people back and they weren’t pouring back like the pastor desired. The drive to reach people was sound, but the stress during this particular cultural moment was proving counterproductive.
Think of it this way:
Our current situation is like a golf tee shot that shoots deep into the woods. From that position, a golfer may not even be able to see the green. And as the game requires, you “play the ball where it lies.”
Right now every church leader is deep in the woods.
Better to chip out towards the fairway. That may take multiple shots just to get back to the fairway and a good lie so you can make a decent shot. Even on the fairway, we may have to hit a lay-up shot.
This season, we are better off taking a bogey or double bogey than trying to hit a hero shot that could make things worse.
That broke through to the pastor – a golfer – who now realized that realistic expectations now, with designing a plan for a later push is a wiser choice.
Extra Bonus
There are some really unique “Year End” financial things this year. Most large churches do some sort of special giving season and this year could be the most strategic EVER.
Generis has this FREE resource that includes a free short course that I think all of you could find benefit.
You have to register but it is FREE.
And you should be thinking as well towards a Fall 2021 vision plan for funding. If you need help finding the right coach, just hit reply and let me get you get someone that fits you. I don’t do that sort of work, but I work with 50 folks that do!
Until next time, Let us not grow weary in doing good.
Dave