People are more normal than we think
Surprising results from what we think about our neighbors and reality
~780 words – less than 3 minutes reading time. But check out the two free things at the bottom.
In recent conversations, I heard pastors express how hard evangelism is today. I don't disagree.
But when I pressed as to why they tended to describe more cultural headwinds than other factors.
I would agree there are cultural headwinds. But some ideas they expressed don't fit reality.
People are more normal than you think, and I have some data to illustrate.
YouGov is a marketing firm designed to help governments understand and communicate their messages. But a recent poll did ask Americans to estimate the percentage of the population that fit a category. They took the average of the survey participant's percentages and then compared that to government statistics as to the reality.
The gaps between perception and reality are stark in many cases.
These perception gaps color how we view the context for ministry as well. If we think there is a huge gap between our beliefs and those we attempt to evangelize and congregationalize we will be reluctant to share. Additionally, it could lead us to false strategies if we believe there is a large gap between our beliefs and another person's beliefs.
Here are a few that struck me.
Let's start with those of a sexual nature.
Americans guessed 21% of their fellow Americans were transgender. The actual figure is less than 1%.
There have been plenty of news stories about transgender rights, athletes, and court cases. But few Americans hold that identity.
Americans guessed 33% of their fellow Americans were gay or lesbian. The actual figure is about 4%.
That neighbor or friend you think is gay or lesbian may not be.
About the same percentages for bisexuals in America.
America is overwhelmingly heterosexual and identifies with its birth gender.
Every local community could be slightly different here, of course. But the soundest assumption is more normal than we think.
What about religious traditions like Muslim or Jewish?
Americans guessed that 27% of Americans were Muslim and 30% were Jewish.
Actually, it's 1% and 2% respectively – a tiny percentage.
And like many Christians, many of those are nominal in the practices of their faith tradition.
Yeah, but what about Atheists? Americans guess that 28% are atheists.
I know many that live like there is no God, but only 3% really are atheists.
Americans guessed that 58% are Christian. The real percentage is 70%. That is a self-descriptor that may not fit your definition, of course. It may not include a precise religious denomination tradition but says that a large majority of the population identifies as Christian.
A recent Christianity Today article calls these the "umms." A good descriptor. Friendly toward Jesus, negative towards a church.
Perhaps people are more open than we think.
I believe religious minorities should be protected, but large swaths of Americans identify with Christians but are not a part of a house of worship. Investing time in that area may prove productive for your church.
Here is a quote from YouGov's report:
Misperceptions of the size of minority groups have been identified in prior surveys, which observers have often attributed to social causes: fear of out-groups, lack of personal exposure, or portrayals in the media. Yet consistent with prior research, we find that the tendency to misestimate the size of demographic groups is actually one instance of a broader tendency to overestimate small proportions and underestimate large ones, regardless of the topic.
I have sat through messages almost encouraging the congregation to be fearful of others because "America is going to hell in a handbasket." But Americans are more normal than we think.
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There is also the case that Americans UNDER estimate specific percentages compared to reality.
How about income? Americans estimate 50% of fellow Americans have an income over $50,000. Actually, it's 62%.
Own a car? The estimate is 67%, but the reality is 88%. Sure, some communities in more urban areas look different, but most of America has a car to drive.
Education – 89% have a high school diploma, but the consensus guess was 68%.
Around 65% own their own home, versus the perception that only half do.
And more people read books than we think. The consensus guess was half, but 77% of Americans read a book last year. (and good news for readers, the number of bookstores increased last year.)
Here's the point:
While the extreme portrayals of Americans get the headlines, the people are more regular than you think.
While every one of us has our quirks and nuances, the bulk of Americans looks much like us.
America is more middle class, Christian, and educated across all our racial diversity than we think.
Our assumptions about our community, county, city, and country are often wrong and prevent productive thinking on evangelization and discipleship. We tend to think negatively and towards alarmism due to media influences.
Facts are our friends here. Encourage your leaders and people with our communities' openness and "alikeness."
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And for the workshops, I did live this year I passed out a 2022 Outlook report that some have found useful for their board conversations. It outlined major areas where we need to be prepared. (of course it missed the Ukraine invasion, some predictor I am). Let me know if you want a copy.